🖐🏻Five Charts In Five Minutes #9
High level technical analysis of the most popular grain and oilseed futures contracts.
At least once a week we go over light technical analysis of grain and oilseed futures contracts. Subscribe to our newsletter, join our Telegram channel, or watch for our Twitter updates for latest posts. Feel free to manage your subscriber preferences at the bottom of this e-mail to fine tune which topics you wish to be subscribed to.
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Corn Futures 🌽
Corn futures are stuck in a trading range with both higher lows and lower highs observed on the charts. Eventually something will shake out, but overall, both bulls and bears have something to talk about. Bulls will point to the drought in Argentina, threats of another Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine, and improved competitiveness of US Corn in international markets. Bears point to the lackluster physical export inspections and increased corn acreage for the 23/24 marketing year. It pays to be patient and trade on the edges of this market until something breaks out one way or another.
🟢Current upside targets: 6.83, 6.88, and 7.00
🔴Current downside targets: 6.71 and 6.61
Wheat Futures 🌾
As mentioned in our earlier technical analysis, it appears Wheat futures have confirmed the end of the ultra bearish trend that kicked off after the black sea grain initiative was first being drafted. Although wheat futures broke this bearish trend, it does not mean that prices cannot still go lower. The bulls might not want to hear that comment, but they definitely will be happy to know there is less resistance on moves up. That is worthy of celebration for any bulls left standing.
For the time being respect the near term trend and anticipate a range between 7.12 and 8.00 for the time being. Definitely be on alert to any news originating from the Black Sea concerning any Russian military threats as that may cause a short covering.
🟢Current upside targets: 7.77 and 8.00
🔴Current downside targets: 7.43 and 7.12
From a technical point of view, we continue to stress that there are hardly any great technical setups to be had for soybean futures. If anything, the choppiness of the market is telling traders to be careful with positions at the top end of the range. Our recommendation is to watch soybean meal futures for intraday trading and stick to the major price levels.
🟢Current upside targets: 15.48 and 15.72
🔴Current downside targets: 15.00 and 14.80
Soybean Oil Futures 🌱🛢️
Soybean oil continues to bleed red on the screen and responds well to technical trading. The charts will tell you that we broke the near term uptrend and succeeded in putting a double bottom @ 58.50. We would be very careful with this level as it is a very weak support level. We believe the 58.50 level is thin ice and if we get there again, this market could easily plunge. Definitely be on alert of this level if you are playing the long side of the market in soybean oil.
🟢Current upside targets: 60.80
🔴Current downside targets: 58.50 and 57.00
Soybean Meal Futures🌱🐮
The best performing asset in the grains market continues to impress. Last week Soybean meal was able to break its 2022 high of $494 and trade above the psychological $500 mark for a short period of time. The next highest high in Soybean Meal stands at $509 and is still considered within striking distance. At these price levels we will continue to observe and let the cash traders figure out how high they want to run this market. Eventually, when the market calms down the focus will be on how the funds will unwind their massive near record long position they accumulated. Be on the lookout for when this happens as those who were trading on January 23rd, already had a taste of that.
🟢Current upside targets: 500 and 509
🔴Current downside targets: 476 and 471
The markets have a lot to talk about, but the overarching theme is how high will these prices last in Soybean Meal, Soybeans, and Corn, and will they go higher? We definitely can read between the lines on social media that many participants in the trade are short, sold out, or calling tops in this market.
Is this truly the top? Or are we in for a very hated rally? Time will tell, but for now just focus on the levels and remember there is war for acres going on right now.👇🏻
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