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🖐🏻Five Charts In Five Minutes #3
High level technical analysis of the most popular grain and oilseed futures contracts.
At least once a week we go over light technical analysis of grain and oilseed futures contracts. Subscribe to our mailing list or watch for our Twitter updates for latest posts. Feel free to manage your subscriber preferences at the bottom of the e-mail to fine tune the e-mails that you wish to receive.
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Corn Futures 🌽
Corn broke out of its near term trendline violently, pushing it above our first target of 6.60. Next target is 6.74. It seems like a new upward trendline is forming in the short run which will add some pain to any short sellers for the moment. Would expect sideways price action between the major down trend and the near term uptrend. Have a plan for both if either breaks.
🟢Current upside target is 6.74, then 6.79
🔴Current downside target is 6.44, then 6.35
Wheat Futures 🌾
Wheat has broken through our 7.69 target we published last week opening the door to 8.00. We will see if Wheat can break out of the major down trend line of 2022 this week or next week. Be mindful if the near term trendline up will be broken and we are truly in a bear market in wheat.
🟢Current upside target 8.00
🔴Current downside target is 7.41and 7.23
The trade is waiting patiently for direction in soybean futures. The inflection point is in front of us with a defined upside and downside. The question now is what will trigger the up or down move - lack of rains in Argentina? A monster Brazilian crop? Chinese demand? Farmer selling? Stay tuned and be prepared.
🟢Current upside target is 14.97 then 15.24
🔴Current downside target is 14.63, 14.33, and 14.13
Soybean Oil Futures 🌱🛢️
We warned about a potential short squeeze that came to fruition last week. That's over and done with...so what's next? We rolled to the March contract and have less direction on the chart. What we do know is that a major fundamental driver of demand is increasing with several *new* renewable diesel plants coming online now and during Q1 and Q2 of 2023. For the moment, let's respect the upward trendline on the chart and realize nearly 50% of the move after the EPA biofuels decision has retraced.
🟢Current upside target is 67
🔴Current downside target is 63.57 and 61.50
Soybean Meal Futures🌱🐮
Soybean meal continues to show strength above the 440 level. Funds have piled in a near record long in futures - the largest since 2018. We remain watchful what Soybeans will do in the near term to give direciton for meal. For now, watch for more stops being taken out on the downside (profit taking) and upside violation of the trendline.
🟢Current upside target is 462 and 466
🔴Current downside target is 443
The grain trade is back in business today with a lot to trade through on the open - China relaxing travel restrictions for foreigners, Argentina weekend rains + precipitation forecast, and the January to March futures roll. All will have to be traded through and accounted for this week and all are heavily focused on the soybean complex.
Charts were made using TradingView.